ADB Lowers Growth Forecast for Developing Asia amid Global Gloom

Monetary policy tightening by central banks globally and in the region, the protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recurring lockdowns in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are slowing down developing Asia’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Restrictions under the “zero-COVID” approach, along with a struggling property market, have led to another downgrade of the PRC’s growth outlook.

“Asia and the Pacific will continue to recover, but worsening global conditions mean that the region’s momentum is losing some steam as we head into the new year,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “Governments will need to work together more closely to overcome the lingering challenges of COVID-19, combat the effects of high food and energy prices—especially on the poor and vulnerable—and ensure a sustainable, inclusive economic recovery.”

ADB lowered its forecast for inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific this year to 4.4% from 4.5%. However, the bank raised its projection for next year to 4.2% from 4.0%, due to lingering inflationary pressures from energy and food.

The PRC’s economy is forecast to expand by 3.0% this year, compared with a previous projection of 3.3%. The forecast for next year was cut to 4.3% from 4.5%, due to the global slowdown. GDP growth projections for India were maintained at 7.0% this fiscal year and 7.2% next fiscal year.

Even with the downgraded forecasts, developing Asia will still do better than other regions globally, both in terms of growth and inflation. ADB’s growth forecast for Southeast Asia this year was raised to 5.5% from 5.1%, amid robust consumption and tourism recovery in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Projections for next year, however, were lowered to 4.7% from 5.0% due to weakening global demand.

While Viet Nam’s economy is performing well amid uncertainties in the global economy, risks to the economic outlook have become elevated. ADB raised its forecasts for Viet Nam’s economy to grow by 7.5% this year. Forecast for inflation for 2022 is revised down to 3.5%.

Though trade continues to expand, signs show weakening global demand for the country’s exports. Growth for 2023 is therefore adjusted down to 6.3% as major trade partners weaken.

The growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia this year was upgraded to 4.8% from 3.9%, while the projection for the Pacific was raised to 5.3% from 4.7%, due to a strong tourism recovery in Fiji.

ADO is published every April, with an update in September and brief supplements published normally in July and December. Developing Asia refers to the bank’s 46 developing members.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.